Poker Strategies
After receiving pocket cards, you are immediately faced with a choice: play your cards and either raise or call the blinds, or fold.
After receiving pocket cards, you are immediately faced with a choice: play your cards and either raise or call the blinds, or fold.
In this case, there are definitely enough Qx, Kx, and TT+ type hands that you can fold out if you raise. Some two pair combos such as 67, 78 and 68 will also fold out a percentage of the time (sometimes they will call). The other part of our decision is of course how much to raise, since we are primarily looking to fold out Qx, Kx, TT+ and some of the weaker two pair combos. The stronger two pairs, sets, and straights obviously aren't going to fold. Something in the realm of 70 BBs (or a raise of 45 more BBs) would accomplish this. You would need your opponent to fold just over 51% of the time to be profitable.
Only including their river value range we should be able to fold out about 56% of that range. So if we evaluated the EV of call versus raise, the EV of raise would be slightly higher in a scenario such as this. An important note is that if you are playing mostly micro stake games, your opponent’s calling range is going to be a bit wider on the river. You won't be running into a lot of good SVBs though, and you can look for many spots to move some of the regulars that are in your games off of better hands when you suspect they are value betting slim a good amount.