Royal online poker club

Let's take a simple example

Let's take a simple example with 100 BB effective stacks. Your opponent open raises 3x the big blind from MP and is currently opening 21.6% of hands from that position. You are on the button with KJs and you 3-bet your opponent to 8 BBs. Your opponent calls and you see a flop heads up. First of all, let's look at the pre-flop equity versus your opponent’s opening range and calling range.

First thing is your pre-flop equity

First thing is your pre-flop equity doesn't really change that much. Yet now you have a re-raised pot, in position against your opponent’s 3-bet calling range, and you have initiative. Combine that with the fact that with two unpaired hole cards, your opponent is whiffing the flop 68% of the time, you've put them in a tough spot. Of course your opponent isn't going to have two unpaired hole cards all the time, but between draws, and hands that can continue, you're going to win the pot with a continuation bet more than half the time. Most opponents fold to continuation bets in 3-bet pots between 50%–60% of the time. If you make a slightly over 1/2 pot sized bet, it's printing money in this situation. Of course the total expected value of this play also depends on how often you're folding to a 4-bet. Let's take a look plugging in some expected percentages: F = (4.5(.20), B = (8(.20), C = .8[-10(.4)+9.5(.6)] F - B + C = EV F = How often your opponent folds to your 3-bet. We're saying conservatively 20%. A good number is between 20–30% depending on your opponent. B = How often your opponent is 4-betting and you'll have to fold. 15–25% is a fair number and against better players who will start 4-betting as their adjustment this will get to ~30%. C = How often a slightly over half pot sized continuation bet will be called. 40% of the time our opponent is calling, with the entire situation occurring only 80% of the time. .9 -1.6 + 1.4 = .7 | EV = +.7 BBs